Yesterday I discussed the few options lef to Mubarak at this point and it appears that he has made his choice:
Then how is this going end? There are a few possibilities...
2. Mubarak may make one last play for power and order police and army contingents that are still loyal to him to open fire on the crowds. This however is a double edged sword: people will either be too intimidated to keep protesting and go home until September or they will be so angry that the protests will swell even larger and become violent.
Mubarak has decided to unleash his supporters (read: members of his National Democratic Party and the police) on the protesters. Mubarak is trying to make it seem like these are counter demonstrations showing devotion to him and striving for a return to normalcy and security. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The pro-Mubarak "protesters" were armed and an "Al Jazeera correspondent said men on horseback and camels had ploughed into the crowds, as army personnel stood by." (full story here: Al-Jazeera) Let me repeat that: Mubarak's thugs are attacking the protesters while riding on horses and camels! Not only that, but they are actively preventing protesters from leaving Tahrir (Freedom) Square, boxing them in.
What's worse is that the army is no longer protecting the crowds. When it was just the police attacking protesters last week, the army stepped in to stop it, but since these thugs are pretending to be other protesters, just in support of Mubarak, the army isn't doing anything.
This is because the army hasn't decided exactly what its position is vis-a-vis the revolution. On the one hand, they are sympathetic to the protests and, as a national institution, want to do what is best for the country. But on the other hand, the army is very much intertwined with the current government. If the government falls their pensions and benefits will be up in the air, as well as their influence.
The two biggest factors in the Revolution right now are:
1. The response of the protesters to the crackdown.
If the protesters keep fighting and keep demonstrating, they can win. But if they are too afraid to keep protesting, then an uneasy calm may return, allowing Mubarak to stay in power until elections in September. So far, it seems like the protesters are staying put, but for how long depends on...
2. Which side the army comes out on: The protesters, Mubarak or neither.
If the army steps in on the side of the protesters, Mubarak is finished.
If the army steps in on the side of Mubarak, depending on how much force they use, the Revolution will either be suppressed completely or badly damaged. So far there have been scenes of protesters and soldiers, arm in arm, chanting "We are Egyptians. We are Brothers." This looked great for the Revolution but the same thing happened in Tiananmen Square. The Chinese government eventually brought in troops from other provinces to do what the local troops wouldn't.
If the army remains neutral, it looks like the Revolution will go on. The protesters outnumber Mubarak's plainclothes supporters and if they hang on, eventually they should be able to overcome them. During the Iranian Revolution, the army - though officially serving the Shah - declared a policy of neutrality. This prevented the Shah from really cracking down on the protests and eventually led to his overthrow.
No one knows what will happen next. Stay tuned.
I hate to say it, but since President Obama equivocated and tried to play both sides, Mubarak took this to mean that the US was still supporting him and took a last stab at retaining power. It is time for the President to show true leadership and stand up for what is right with actions instead of empty platitudes.
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