Don't Believe the Hype: Egypt is the New Turkey, not the New Iran.

With everything going on in Egypt right now there has been a lot of talk about what is going to happen next and how that will affect the US, Israel and the rest of the world.

The loudest answer to this question is that being made by Fox News. They say that we need to keep supporting Mubarak because the only alternative is the Muslim Brotherhood. In short they are saying, "be afraid. Be very afraid." This is because Fox News gets better ratings when it's audience is too scared to go outside.

The next question needed to be asked is: why is this the go to answer that everyone seems to be jumping on?
The answer: Mubarak has been saying it day in and day out for the past 30 years precisely because it scares us to the point where we're willing to overlook torture, murder and the general abandonment of all our morals.

Does this mean the Muslim Brotherhood is a completely reformed, non-threatening, cuddly group of teddy bears that we should invite over for dinner? Of course not. But it does mean that maybe we shouldn't be cowering in fear of a group who's power and influence has been exaggerated for political purposes.

But isn't this exactly what happened in Iran in 1979? An American supported dictator is being overthrown and will inevitably be replaced by a radical Islamic state bent on war with the West and the destruction of Israel? Well that remains to be seen and there are a lot of good reasons why that probably won't be the case in this situation.

The biggest reason is that Egyptians have already seen how that story ends. The idea of trading in a repressive secular dictator for a repressive religious dictator doesn't hold much appeal. Sure, the Muslim Brotherhood is out at the protests, but that is mostly because EVERYONE is out at the protests. Is it possible that in the confusion they make a power play and try to take over? Yeah, sure. It is likely? No.

After the revolution is over, Egypt will not be a Western lackey any more. But that doesn't mean it will be an enemy. It will be more like our angry brother. It might yell at us and disagree with us, but it isn't going to try to kill us. Now that doesn't sound so great since with Mubarak gave us a rubber stamp on pretty much everything. But while he was doing that, he was using our support - political, military, monetary - to make sure that every one of his people hated us.

But Mubarak kept the peace treaty with Israel, doesn't that mean he's good for the West? No! He kept the peace treaty on paper, but did absolutely nothing to make his people understand why it is important. He did nothing to promote any sort of understanding. There are no celebrations or commemorations of the Camp David Accords in Egypt, but there are yearly parades glorifying the Egyptian "victory" of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Mubarak did all this because it let him make peace with Israel while still keeping it as an enemy. It let him get America on his side while still dangling the "if you lose me you lose a peaceful Egypt," card in front of us.

Now this is actually a serious issue because Egyptians by and large hate Israel. While talking to my cabbie in Cairo last year on Sinai Liberation Day, he wouldn't say the word Israel without spitting on the ground after. If anything goes wrong, from a jump in unemployment to an unusually large sandstorm, the go to scapegoat is Israel. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis visit Egypt each year but relatively few Egyptians going in the other direction. 


The best possible outcome I can think of at this point is if Mohammed El-Baradei is selected to be interim president. He is a secular, democratic, pragmatist who understands that even if he doesn't like Israel, he realizes that keeping the peace treaty is in Egypt's best interest. Hopefully he will be able to temper some of the revolutionary enthusiasm and convince Egypt that it is easier to rebuild their country while not at war with the regional superpower; that if they lose the Sinai and it's oil to Israel again, they won't have the money needed to subsidize food or train new police or rebuild all the burnt out buildings.


In the end, Egypt won't end up like Iran. It will end up like Turkey; a secular-ish democracy, with a strong army, a shaky peace with Israel, while trying to simultaneously westernize and take up the mantle of Arab and Muslim leadership. Sure, Turkey isn't the Muslim darling of the West anymore, but it isn't fighting us. It's a NATO member that still wants to join the EU. That isn't the way I'd make things if I was in charge - I'll have to bring it up at the next Elders of Zion meeting - but it doesn't sound so terrible to me.